These are tough times. The words war, recession, terrorism, and downturn are popping up way too often in conversation, and the negativity is beginning to show. With the increase of job loss and home foreclosure, we’ve seen a decrease of vacations, parties, and long-term security.

And what about babies? A high birth rate (defined as the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime) is the ultimate modern American indicator of prosperity, and suggests an overall feeling of contentedness and confidence. Just before the recession hit, the U.S. was experiencing a baby record break.

According to a recent New York Times report, there were 4,317,000 births in 2007, which just beats the record year of 1957 during the post-war baby boom.

The primary difference between the mothers of today and those of the mid-century is this: Back then, fewer women gave birth, but when they did, they did it three or four times. Today, more women are having children – perhaps due to the acceptance of doing so later in life – but they are only having two or three.

Unfortunately, the rise in births was due to more than simply older women having babies. The number also indicates an increase in teenage and unplanned pregnancy. The reasons for this are not entirely clear.

Some believe that a push for “abstinence only” sex education has led to a drop in the use of contraceptive methods. Others blame society’s relaxed view of sexual relationships.

Whatever the cause, 2007 was a year for population expansion. 2008 and 2009, however, could be very different.

Although the numbers are not yet in, people who keep tabs on fertility, pregnancy, and child rearing are noticing a few changes in trend. Men seem to be scheduling more vasectomies, and canceling their vasectomy reversals. Adoption organizations see fewer faces at their information sessions.

Even though there is no way to draw a true correlation between economic recession and a resulting decreased birth rate, the concept has historical significance.

During the Great Depression, birth rates plummeted to 2.1. In the 1970s they were down to 1.7. Successive recessions have seen smaller dips, but dips nonetheless.

Whether or not a similar shift will happen in the current downturn will probably not be known until 2010. But speak with any young couple of childbearing age, and they’ll likely mention that the economy is a definite deterrent to becoming pregnant.

Assuming that the recession lasts at least as long as a gestational period, but not as long as a generation, any dent in baby making should be made up for by the eventual upturn. So don’t get rid of those strollers and hand-me-downs just yet!